China’s dominance of the global optical fibre broadband market is set to continue beyond 2011, thanks to both the strength of its vendors and projected massive subscriber growth. A report from analyst Ovum predicts that FTTx subscriber numbers in China will reach 100 million by 2016, constituting over 50 per cent of the world’s subscribers.

The report, entitled FTTx Market Review: China’s Dominance,  states that vendors Huawei and ZTE, the world’s top two suppliers by market share, will continue to hold these positions for years to come. According to the report, “The companies are a strong force both in the local Chinese market and overseas and their competitors will find it almost impossible to unseat them.”

Ovum principle analyst and report co-author Julie Kunstler said that China’s status as the world’s largest consumer of FTTx kit will continue, with government-and-service-provider-set bandwidth and subscriber targets set to drive exponential growth. “In addition, the government is provider support for deployments in the form of credit and partnerships,” says Kunstler. “The significant Greenfield construction projects that are underway in the country make the installation of FTTx networks easier.”

According to the report, the rise of Chinese kit makers, which make up three of the top five global vendors, is “mainly due to lower growth rates in Japan and Korea, where high FTTx household penetration rates have been reached. “ In addition, the report points to the fact that Japanese and Korean vendors are not major exporters of fibre kit. “Huawei and ZTE are strong exporters outside of China,” says Kunstler, adding that the pair accounted for 50 per cent of FTTx equipment revenues in EMEA in the final quarter of 2010. “They have strong expertise in FTTx, given their large home market and the company will benefit from future growth in China and Eastern Europe,” she said, adding that while their will continue to be room for other players, “it will be difficult to unseat the top two.”