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Could Iliad Italia be a victim of Corporate Darwinism?

Iliad’s Italian business unit has lodged complaints with Italian and European regulators regarding network sharing deals, but could these objections be effectively ignored?

While network sharing is a proposition which offers great benefits to cash-strapped telcos in pursuit of the eye-wateringly expensive 5G connectivity dream, it is not without its opponents and critics. Some regulators have become very defensive about the progressive idea, while there are telcos being left out of discussions who are objecting also.

In Belgium, Telenet has raised concerns over a tie-up between Orange and Proximus, while the European Commission prevented O2 and T-Mobile from expanding an existing agreement to include 5G in the Czech Republic. Both of these network sharing partnerships have been halted in the pursuit of maintaining attractive levels of competition, but Iliad’s objections might fall on deaf ears.

Iliad is objecting to network sharing agreements between Wind Tre and Fastweb, as well as another between Telecom Italia and Vodafone Italia. Iliad is the only major telco in Italy not to be in a network sharing discussion. If these partnerships bear fruit, efficiencies will be realised, meaning competitor funds can be redirected elsewhere.

If this is a prediction of the future, Iliad will be in a weakened position to compete in the Italian market, and financial pressures could become too much to justify the venture. Iliad could become a victim of Corporate Darwinism.

The competition versus consolidation conundrum

Competition has been somewhat of a difficult topic of conversation between the regulators and telcos in recent years, primarily because of the polar-opposite opinions on market consolidation. The telcos would like to consolidate to achieve scaled economics, while the regulators want to preserve the number of telcos in each of the markets to maintain competition and encourage investment.

There are pros and cons on either side of the fence, though the regulators do not seem to be shifting. This argument has knock-on effects for network sharing agreements.

Ovum’s Dario Talmesio points out, network sharing could be viewed as consolidation through the backdoor. Combined assets reduces the number of independent networks in the market, and potentially reduces investments and competition.

In the Czech O2 and T-Mobile case, the European Commission suggested as there were only three major players in the market, further combination of assets between two of the parties would present too much of a risk of the third being squeezed out. The same case has been presented by Telenet to the national regulator in Belgium.

Regulators are sensitive to any propositions which would negatively impact competition in a market, but what about markets where the number of telcos could actually be reduced?

How much is too much competition?

While there is no official stance on the number of telcos in a market, the European Commission does not generally approve activities which would reduce the number of telcos below four. Vetoing the O2/Three merger in the UK, or Telia/Telenor in Denmark are two examples, but this might not be the case in Italy.

If regulators were to allow the network sharing agreements to proceed, Iliad would certainly be in a very precarious position, though there would still be four mobile service providers in the country; Telecom Italia, Vodafone Italia, Wind Tre and a Fastweb proposition enabled by its agreement with Wind Tre. This might be deemed enough competition in Italy to maintain a healthy market for the consumer and a financially sustainable one for the telcos.

The four telcos named above are venturing into untested waters here. This presents a new question for the regulators to answer on competition. Theoretically, suitable levels of competition are being sustained, and this network sharing dynamic has been approved by regulators in the past.

In the UK, Three and EE have formed MBNL, while Vodafone and O2 have CTIL. These are passive infrastructure sharing joint ventures, focusing on the rural environments. It is a similar situation which would be created in Italy, and the UK does have a sustainable telco industry. It is evidence that the dynamic could work, with or without Iliad in the mix.

Could this be a case of Corporate Darwinism?

Corporate Darwinism occurs when a market evolves to such a degree that players are either irrelevant or uncompetitive, and therefore go out of business.

The best example of this is Blockbusters. Once a dominant player in the movie rental business, as the distribution of content moved online the proposition of Blockbusters was no-longer relevant, therefore the company did not survive. This is an example of a market evolving to such a degree that the business was no-longer relevant.

The Iliad example is perhaps one where the market evolves to such a degree that the business is no-longer competitive.

If the four remaining mobile service providers have network sharing initiatives driving network deployment, investments can be more intelligently spend (a) on the network, or (b) in other areas of the business.

The shared networks might have a greater geographical footprint, have future-proofed technology and higher performance specs. Theoretically, Iliad would churn subscribers to higher quality rivals. Also, as less money is being spent on network deployment, tariffs could be lower, but profitability could be maintained. Or, more cash could be invested in value-add propositions for products. Rival offerings could look more attractive than Iliad products.

If regulators approve the network sharing agreements between Telecom Italia and Vodafone Italia, alongside Wind Tre and Fastweb, Iliad would find itself in a very difficult position. It become difficult to see the telco surviving in the long-term.

Unfortunately for Iliad, there is a coherent argument to approve the partnerships to drive towards a more sustainable telecoms industry, allowing the telcos to realise efficiencies ahead of the vast expenditure of 5G. The consumer would benefit, as would enterprise customers and the Italian economy on the whole. It might be a case of letting Iliad die out for the greater good of the Italian telecoms sector.

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