5G on the up in Middle East and Africa - Nokia

The Finnish kit vendor's MEA Mobile Broadband Index 2024 predicts that 5G subscriptions across the region will reach 519 million by 2029, or 23% of the regions overall 2.29 billion mobile users. That's a hefty increase from 41 million this year, or just 2% of the total. In fact, it represents a CAGR of 45.5%, compared with a 4.3% growth rate for all subscriptions.

The figures include M2M, IoT and other data devices, as well as mobile handsets, but non-phone SIMs accounted for just 9% of total subscriptions this year, rising to 11% by 2029. At that end date, smartphones will account for 78% of the market with feature phones representing just 11%, half the share they have at present.

More affordable smartphones will doubtless encourage 4G and 5G take-up and, as Nokia points out, operators have introduced new financing options and subsidies to make them more accessible.

The biggest growth in 5G in the MEA region over the next few years will come from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sub-region, although the actual volumes are pretty small compared to other areas.

The GCC is leading the way in 5G adoption, Nokia reports, predicting that 90% of its mobile subs will use the technology by 2029, up from a creditable 32% at present.

"This rapid growth is largely driven by robust government support and significant investments in 5G infrastructure," Nokia said.

Relatively speaking, the numbers are not huge though. That 90% figure is out of a total of 141 million, up from 116 million this year.

The Central East West Africa (CEWA) region will have a total of 1.06 billion mobile subs by 2029, according to Nokia's data. While its overall base is the largest, coming in almost 10 times bigger than the GCC (see chart), its 5G base is proportionately the lowest.

"The region is seeing a gradual 5G rollout, with subscriptions projected to reach 16% by 2029," Nokia said. "This slower pace may be attributed to challenges like infrastructure development and affordability."

Indeed, CEWA is the only one of the five regions studied by Nokia in which 3G connections will still top 5G by 2029.

But while 5G may not be developing as quickly in the Middle East and Africa as it has in many other major global markets, the figures are encouraging. And as subscriptions grow, the data traffic dynamics of the region will change.

Data traffic will grow to 476 exabytes in the MEA by 2029, up from 147 EB in 2024 and 189 EV next year, Nokia's figures show. More than 90% of that traffic in 2029 will be carried over 4G and 5G networks; specifically, the two technology generations will carry 48% each, it predicts.

"5G data traffic presents a significant opportunity for monetization by enabling operators and businesses to offer new services (network slicing) and generate new revenue streams such as fixed wireless access, growth in IoT applications and industry 4.0 initiatives, and edge computing," the report notes.

That sounds like something we've heard before, where 5G monetisation is concerned.