Standalone stagnation still to blame for mobile core malaiseStandalone stagnation still to blame for mobile core malaise

The latest gloomy market forecast comes from Dell'Oro Group. It has not shared actual figures, but notes that the segment's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the 2024-2029 period remains in negative territory.

As well as a much slower-than-expected migration to 5G standalone on the part of the operator community, something the industry has bemoaned many times in recent years, the analyst firm point to economic headwinds and competitive price pressure to explain the ongoing malaise.

"The MCN [mobile core network] market is projected to peak in 2025 and slide lower throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Unfortunately, it is a bleak outlook," said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell'Oro Group.

"The 5G SA market, which is the growth driver for the market, has had difficulty finding the right path to scale the market dramatically upward," he said.

Indeed, Dell'Oro data shows that mobile operators launched just eight new 5G standalone networks in 2024, bringing the total to around 61 in 34 countries.

The UK's EE launched 5G SA in September last year and kicked off 2025 by sharing details of how it had used network slicing on the infrastructure to provide a dedicated payments infrastructure for Lavery's Beer Tent at the Belfast Christmas Market.

18 European operators had launched 5G SA as of September 2024, the GSMA revealed recently, in a report in which it focused on Europe's lack of competitiveness in the global 5G market, albeit with a more positive tone with regard to the development of 5G SA and 5G-Advanced in the continent.

Interestingly, Dell'Oro highlights the EMEA region as a whole as one of the few positives in its mobile core analysis, although it did not specifically refer to 5G standalone.

"The only bright spots are the segments that will grow during the forecast period. They are the EMEA region, 5G MCN, and MEC," Bolan said. "However, these segments are not growing enough to offset the decline in the 4G MCN and VoLTE/VoNR market segments."

And, of course, we are seeing the application of 5G SA capabilities in both the EMEA region and further afield.

Just this week Singtel announced it has won a deal with Singapore's Defence and Home Affairs ministries to use network slicing for various security-related applications. And late last year Verizon launched an Enhanced Video Calling service based on network slicing, while Deutsche Telekom introduced a 5G+ Gaming Tariff using the same technology.

While these examples demonstrate that there are telcos out there rolling out 5G SA and then using its additional capabilities to offer new types of services, they are few and far between, relatively speaking.

And until more mobile operators take the plunge, the mobile core market will remain in the doldrums. There are other opportunities for growth out there, but investment dollars are for the most part being channelled elsewhere.

"New hope is being promoted with 5G-Advanced networks, common application programmable interfaces (APIs), non-terrestrial networks (NTN), artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML), and the newest Generative AI and Agentic AI," said Dolan.

"MNOs are exploring all these options, but it could be difficult because investment capital is going into AI Data Centers and semiconductors supporting AI. It remains to be seen if MNOs can compete for investment dollars," he said.

At present, they are failing. You only have to scan the headlines for mentions of 'AI' to realise that.