Merger of Vodafone Australia and TPG blocked

The Australian competition authority has decided that the telco merger of Vodafone and TPG amounts to excessive consolidation and has blocked it.

This decision comes after months of agonising by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which started looking into the deal last December, several months after it was first proposed. Vodafone is one of three major MNOs over there, while TPG is one of three major fixed-line players.

“Broadband services are of critical importance to Australian consumers and businesses, across both fixed and mobile channels,” ACCC Chair Rod Sims said. “Given the longer term industry trends, TPG has a commercial imperative to roll out its own mobile network giving it the flexibility to deliver both fixed and mobile services at competitive prices. It has previously stated this and invested accordingly.

“Vodafone has likewise felt the need to enter the market for fixed broadband services. These moves by TPG and Vodafone are likely to improve competition and future market contestability. TPG is the best prospect Australia has for a new mobile network operator to enter the market, and this is likely the last chance we have for stronger competition in the supply of mobile services.

“Wherever possible, market structures should be settled by the competitive process, not by a merger which results in a market structure that would be subject to little challenge in the future. This is particularly the case in concentrated sectors, such as mobile services in Australia.

“TPG has a proven track record of disrupting the telecommunications sector and establishing itself as a successful competitor to the benefit of consumers. TPG is likely to be a vigorous and innovative supplier of mobile services in Australia, offering cheaper mobile plans with large data allowances, and competing strongly against incumbents Telstra, Optus and Vodafone.

“TPG has the capability and commercial incentive to resolve the technical and commercial challenges it is facing, as it already has in other markets. TPG already has mobile spectrum, an extensive fibre transmission network which is essential for a mobile network, a large customer base and well-established telecommunications brands.

“TPG is also facing reducing margins in fixed home broadband due to the NBN rollout. Further, there is the growing take-up of mobile broadband services in place of fixed home broadband services which is expected to increase especially after the rollout of 5G technology. After thorough examination, we have concluded that, if this proposed merger does not proceed, there is a real chance TPG will roll out a mobile network.”

It’s great that Sims offered such a detailed rationale, but he could have just said “We want to force Vodafone and TPG to diversify through organic investment rather than M&A.” He doesn’t seem to buy TPG’s line that the Huawei ban makes it impossible for it to build its own mobile network, but it seems to be a big leap of faith to conclude that blocking this merger will automatically result in a change of heart.