Three UK's results are all about Vodafone...again

And this time it made no effort to disguise that fact, publishing merely the highlights of its performance for the year to date before launching its now customary diatribe on the lack of return on investment in 5G in the UK and how the country will almost certainly suffer if it is not permitted to merge with its larger rival.

"These results show that while we continue to grow our customer base and manage the business efficiently, we remain cashflow negative since 2019," said Three UK chief executive Robert Finnegan in a statement that very closely echoes the one he made alongside the telco's first half numbers in August. Except back then he claimed Three had had negative cashflows since 2020.

"The UK ranks a lowly 22nd out of 25 European countries for 5G speeds and availability and we simply cannot, as a standalone company, generate the returns to justify the levels of investment required to change this," he said, quoting the same figures from OpenSignal as he did three months ago. He changed a couple of words in his statement, but not many.

"We have given cast-iron commitments to the CMA to enable our merger with Vodafone unlocking £11bn of private investment that will transform UK 5G and deliver a world class network for consumers and businesses," Finnegan said. Again.

The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) is still looking into the Vodafone/Three merger and is due to make a decision by early December. That being the case, this could well be the last results announcement at which Three trots out the same old refrain about not being able to afford to continue, but there's every chance we'll hear that £11 billion investment promise a few more times in the coming weeks.

In the meantime, Three will have to settle for having generated revenues of more than £2 billion in the first nine months of 2024 – £2.1 billion to be exact – and a margin of £1.3 billion; both figures represent a 9% increase on the same period a year earlier.

Its spending has fallen year-on-year; Three reported a 3% improvement in capex to £338 million.

However, despite all of the above, EBITDA-less-capex remained negative due to increased operating costs as a result of inflation, Three said. It did not share that earnings figure though.

Customers are on the increase, with almost 200,000 added so far this year to take the total active base to 10.9 million. Growth in the operator's contract customer base exceeded its overall growth.

Three says the ongoing high cost of living means customers are moving to lower-value products, driving market competition and a higher churn rate. Its contract churn rate was up by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%. In turn, that is putting pressure on two core business areas: Contract and Prepay Voice.

Its not wholly clear what form that pressure takes though. The operator's average revenue and margin per user both increased, by 3% and 4% respectively.

In all, this looks like a pretty solid set of numbers, based on the figures Three has actually shared, at least. But that doesn't really fit the 'merge or die' narrative.