eSIM shipments forecast to boom

A surge in eSIM adoption will be driven by ecosystem simplification, claims Kaleido Intelligence.

A new report says that 1.4 billion eSIMs will be shipped in 2028, which it puts at a 77% hike, while CAGR will rise 21% between now and then. As the sector evolves operators will be ‘forced’ to embrace eSIM, we’re told.

The report says that today many operators rely on QR code mechanisms for eSIMS which it asserts ‘do not offer an optimal end-user experience,’ and that a ‘fully end-to-end digital onboarding process for consumer devices is critical.’

Market disruption will come in the form of ‘travel eSIM’ as well as increased ability to transfer an eSIM from one device to another, ‘forcing the market to take new shape.’

An IoT specification for eSIMs will see ‘commercialisation as pre-compliant solutions’ in 2024, and will lower the technical and investment burden to of setting up IoT systems, it claims. The release also states: “Although many MNOs may not have a concrete strategy for IoT connectivity at retail, support for eSIM via the new specification will offer considerable opportunities at the wholesale level. With well over half of active IoT eSIMs using the new specification by 2028, demand for connectivity profiles will be greater than ever before.”

“The eSIM market has seen several developments recently that smooth the path to adoption, and address many lingering ecosystem challenges,” said Steffen Sorrell, Chief of Research at Kaleido. “The effect of this will mean eSIM or iSIM form factors will gradually become a de facto requirement by 2028 for most cellular devices.”

A recent survey by Omdia would seem to back up this projection of growth for the IoT and eSIM sector – of the hundreds of enterprise professionals polled over 70% of said they are planning to use 5G connectivity for IoT, while, eSIM/iSIM technology has already been or will be adopted by nearly 90% over the next two years.

In general 95% of them expected to see measurable benefits from iOT within two years of deployment, and 90% said existing IoT projects have met or exceeded their expectations.