‘Improved optimism’ for global smartphone market this year

Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 5.8% YoY in 2024 to 1.23 billion units, so says IDC Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker.

A 12% growth in the first quarter of the year, followed by 9% growth last quarter, has brought ‘improved optimism’ about how the rest of 2024 will play out, says the report.

The analyst firm points to affordable Android smartphones as a key driver as they continue to grow rapidly in emerging markets, coming off a ‘difficult’ two years. Meanwhile premium markets are starting to embrace GenAI smartphones, we’re told, ‘generating excitement and renewed interest in the industry.’

GenAI smartphones are new in the market, says the report, but premium flagship devices will continue to adopt GenAI features as a differentiator, and it expects a 344% growth for GenAI smartphones, capturing 18% share of the total market by the end of this year. The average selling price for these smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-GenAI capable devices, we’re told.

"The improved forecast for 2024 cements the road to recovery for the smartphone market, driven by stronger growth for Android devices in China and emerging markets," said Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1% than iOS at 0.8%. Apple's softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China but also a higher comparison base year.

“However, there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades."

In its forecasting report from earlier in the month, fellow analyst firm Counterpoint also estimated that GenAI’s share of overall smartphone shipments will reach 18% by 2024, and that combined with ‘ongoing premiumization’ this is likely going to push up the average selling prices and revenues in the coming quarters.