Global smartphone market returned to growth in 2024

The global smartphone market has been at best static for years now, since nearly everyone who can afford it already has one. The lack of new markets or, for that matter, reasons to own more than one, cause sales to plateau as people simply replace their device when the old one starts to feel obsolete, a cycle that had tended to extend itself.

A further factor in persuading people to wait just that bit longer before visiting the phone shop with acquisitive intent will have been the macroeconomic environment. The rampant inflation caused by reckless monetary tinkering during the pandemic has made people feel poorer, which was bound to hit discretionary spending. That inflation was largely brought under control last year and, while its malign effect on the cost of living remained, perhaps people were a bit less cautious about splashing out as a consequence.

“2024 was a year of recovery and normalization after a difficult 2023,” said Tarun Pathak of Counterpoint. “Smartphones continue to be an essential product, pivotal to people’s daily lives, and as macroeconomic pressures softened, the market started showing signs of recovery from Q4 2023 and has now grown for five consecutive quarters. Almost all markets showed growth, led by Europe, China and Latin America.”

China is a country especially keen on top-down economic tinkering, seeing no harm in artificially generating demand though a spot of state fiscal intervention. It seems likely, therefore, that China was one of the main drivers of this weak global recovery. This assumption is supported by the fact that Chinese vendors took share from the likes of Samsung and Apple globally last year. A major component of the ‘others’ is likely to be Huawei and its sub-brand Honor.

While gimmicks such as foldy phones and phones claiming to be extra good as genAI remain niche, they, together with inflation, have helped drive increases in the average selling price of phones. In fact, Counterpoint says the $1,000 and up price tier was the fastest growing of all last year. While inflation will once more have been a factor, it seems demand for premium devices in general is also rising.

“iPhone sell-through was down, but consumers are pivoting to Apple’s ultra-high end, helping to offset some of the declines,” said Ivan Lam of Counterpoint. “In markets like China, we're seeing sell-through share of Pro series devices ballooning. To illustrate, Pro and Pro Max devices were at mid-forties share in China during Q4 2023, but in Q4 2024, we’re likely to see the final numbers tip well over the halfway mark.”