Global Open RAN market share by 2027 revised downward

The global Open RAN market share forecast to 2027 has been revised downward by market research firm Dell’ Oro Group, for the first time.

Since tracking this technology, the research firm reports it is the first time it has observed some hesitancy about the architecture. Despite this revision, it forecasts Open RAN to still comprise 15% to 20% of all global RAN by 2027, having now reached a “mid-single digit share” of the total RAN market. Previous announcements set this figure at somewhere between 6% to 10%.

The latest analysis of the market has also translated into a downward trajectory of the cumulative revenues by 5% to 10% throughout the forecast period. For comparison, almost a year ago the firm claimed some momentum behind Open RAN and forecasted this radio access technology taking up 15% of the total RAN market by 2026 and some $20 billion over that forecast period.

“We can think of this revision more as a near-term calibration than a change in the long-term growth trajectory” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and Analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. Never expecting for the transformation in the RAN market to be smooth, Pongratz continued that many challenges are yet to overcome. “Even so, our long-term position has not changed. We continue to believe that Open RAN is here to stay, and the growing support by the incumbent suppliers bolsters this thesis”.

While operators in Europe have been more vocal with their Open RAN target announcements, their deployment strategies have remained more cautious with 5G buildouts focusing on the use of traditional RAN, according to the Dell’ Oro Group. The firm expects further delays in the region. Nonetheless, the analyst base line assumes the European Open RAN market to surpass $1 billion by 2027, eventually taking a leading role.

Previous forecasts by the research firm had been viewed as generally bullish. Additionally, prominent greenfield operator examples have somewhat failed to impress so far leaving many Open RAN players to look to brownfield operations to make an industry impact. But to date not many have achieved any significant product swaps, nor does it look like there are many progressing at a pace that would accelerate Open RAN maturity among brownfield operators.

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