And the winner is… Comcast!!!!

Comcast has emerged as the winner of the drawn-out Sky acquisition battle with 21st Century Fox, offering shareholders £17.28 per share.

After 21 months, much bickering and passive aggressive commentary, the auction was completed on Saturday 22 September, with Comcast valuing the business at £30 billion. The unusual auction process was overseen by The Takeover Panel, an independent body established in 1968, whose main function is to issue and administer the City Code on M&A.

“We consider the Comcast Offer to be an excellent outcome for Sky shareholders, and we are recommending it as it represents materially superior value,” said Martin Gilbert, Chairman of the Independent Committee of Sky. “We are focused on drawing this process to a successful and swift close and therefore urge shareholders to accept the recommended Comcast Offer.”

“Sky is a wonderful company with a great platform, tremendous brand, and accomplished management team,” said Comcast CEO Brian Roberts. “This acquisition will allow us to quickly, efficiently and meaningfully increase our customer base and expand internationally.”

In securing Sky, Comcast not only adds an additional 23 million customer relationships to its current subscriber base of 29 million, it also increases its footprint in international markets. Prior to swallowing the Sky business, Comcast attributed 9% of its revenues to the international markets, though this now increases to 25%. It’s a more diversified business, offering comfort for Comcast shareholders, while also creating a broad and varied content portfolio. Alongside partnerships with HBO and Showtime, Sky also brings with it a heavyweight position in sport content, a presence which has underpinned its success.

Looking more specifically at the auction process, it was a slightly unusual one. Starting on Friday night, both companies made a starting bid, with the lowest offeror at the commencement being afforded the opportunity to make an increased bid in the first round. In the second round, only the offeror that was not eligible to make a bid in the first round could make an increased bid. If there was not an increased bid in the second round, the auction would have been concluded, though it did run to the third (and final) round, where both companies were offered a final opportunity to increase bids.

As a result of this process, Comcast tabled a bid of £17.28 compared to £15.67 per share from 21st Century Fox. The winning bid represents a premium of 125% to the closing price of £7.69 on 6 December 2016, the last business day before 21st Century Fox’s initial approach. Sky has proven to be a very successful bet for investors representing a ten-year total shareholder return (since 1 July 2008) of +402%, compared to +97% as an average of the FTSE 100.

While this might seem to be the end of a prolonged saga, there are a couple of twists yet to be turned. Firstly, Comcast still has to convince shareholders to part with their assets, and secondly, what will the future hold for the Sky telco business?

In terms of the shareholders, for Comcast to officially secure Sky it will have to gain approval of 50% of shareholders. Fox/Disney currently owns 39% of the business and is yet to disclose what its own position will be, meaning Comcast will have to convince 82% of the remaining shareholders to be safe. Due to the Fox/Disney 39% stake, de-listing Sky will be an unlikely outcome (75% threshold is needed), as will squeezing out remaining shareholders (90% ownership is required). 21st Century Fox could remain a thorn in Comcast’s side for some time.

Another question worth considering is what to do with the Sky telco business. Comcast’s intentions in acquiring Sky have been clear; it is Europe’s most powerful content business; though the telco business comes with this prize. Sky certainly has a notable broadband business in the UK (roughly 6 million subscriptions) and has successfully launched its own MVNO, though it is currently unclear whether this is an area Comcast would like to develop or whether it will look for a sale.

According to RBC Capital Markets, an acquirer would have to shell out in the region of £4.5 billion to purchase the Sky telco business, though there do not seem to be many suitors. BT, Virgin Media and TalkTalk are too large for antitrust approval, leaving only O2 and Three in the telco space. Considering the precarious financial position of O2’s parent company Telefonica, and recent comments from CEO Mark Evans dismissing the convergence craze, O2 seems unlikely.

Like O2, Three has a large mobile business but no presence in the broadband space; a converged offer would be of interest to cash-conscious consumers. It is unknown whether Three parent company Hutchison would want to pursue this avenue, though considering it has begrudgingly spent and cash in the past, instead trying to use political influence to better Three’s prospects (it has a reputation as a moany, spoilt child for a reason), we can’t see this as realistic.

The only other option which would be on the table would be a player from the financial market, though RBC Capital Markets feels Comcast will retain the telco business without expanding it to the continent. Sky is demonstrating the convergence business model can work, and it is an important aspect of the offering in customer eyes; why would it want to undermine a healthy position. As the old Bert Lance motto goes, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’.

The auctions bring to close a long-running chapter in the European content game, but this is by no means the end of the story. With its 39% stake in the business, 21st Century Fox can still be a prominent character.