Brekke bows out amidst Nordic optimism at Telenor

But despite the positive spin, the Norway-based operator is still facing challenges at its Asian operations, Bangladesh in particular, and that is having an impact on its overall numbers as well as its full-year outlook.

At group level Telenor expects organic EBITDA growth before specific items to come in at 3% to 4% for the full year, having previously guided for mid-single-digit growth.

This outlook is aided by the Nordics, where Telenor now expects 3%-4% organic growth in service revenues, versus a previous outlook of low-to-mid single digit growth, and around 6% organic growth in EBITDA, changed from mid-single-digit organic growth. But the group outlook is "dented" by macro-economic fallout in Bangladesh, where the government fell during the quarter and former PM Sheikh Hasina fled the country, as well as inflationary headwinds in Asia, especially linked to energy in Pakistan.

At group level Telenor posted service revenues of 16.2 billion kroner (US$1.5 billion) in the third quarter to the end of September, an organic increase of 2.1%, while EBITDA was up by 1.8% to NOK9.2 billion.

The telco's figures were buoyed by markets close to home, with the Nordics bringing in NOK11.4 billion in service revenues, up 3% on the year-earlier quarter. Conversely, its Asian markets took a 1% hit on service revenues – or 6% on a reported basis – to NOK4.3 billion and saw earnings slide by 3%. Declines in Bangladesh more than offset growth in Pakistan, a much smaller market for Telenor.

"We see some early signs of pick-up in the economic activity in Bangladesh, but it will take time before the situation is normalised," Brekke said, in his commentary on the numbers. "Apart from this, a lot of positive things are happening in Asia. I am impressed to see our business in Pakistan back to solid EBITDA growth despite challenging macro conditions. In Thailand, True is being rewarded for many good strategic choices during the last year, while CelcomDigi in Malaysia continues to generate solid dividends."

Brekke highlighted solid customer growth in the Nordics; Telenor brought in close to 60,000 mobile net adds across Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland. And he made particular mention of a new contract with Aker Solutions in the enterprise sector, which will bring in 6,000 new customers and give Telenor a leg up in what is a highly competitive corporate market, he said.

Brekke's optimism around Telenor's telecoms operations, particularly in the Nordics, is the norm for the leader of a European incumbent. And in Telenor's case we have now also come to expects an arguably disproportionate focus on security, the operator having hammered home its message on growing cybersecurity threats for the past few quarters.

In Q3 Telenor stopped 510 million attempts at digital crime in Norway alone, it claimed, some 10 million more than it reported just six months ago. It also stopped 11.6 million phone-based fraud attempts, and15.6 million by SMS.

"Criminals are constantly developing new methods to attack businesses and people. Many attacks start with phishing attempts, where they try to trick us into clicking on links or giving away personal information," said Brekke. "We are now entering a peak season for this type of fraud, in connection with Black Week and Christmas shopping, and expect to see an increase in fraud attempts related to online shopping and deliveries."

But it will not be Brekke's responsibility to manage that peak fraud season in Q4, or at least not entirely. His replacement, Benedicte Schilbred Fasmer, is due to take over on 1 December and she will be the one to present Telenor's full-year numbers in 2025.

We're not expecting any major strategy shift from Schilbred Fasmer, but it will be interesting to see where the new chief exec's priorities lie when those numbers hit the wires.