T-Mobile US says 'nothing to see here' after report of dodgy Q4

"My comments explaining normal seasonal trends in Q4 were misinterpreted by one media outlet as a warning, so I want to make sure there is no investor confusion," said Sievert, in a hastily-published statement following his appearance at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference.

"To be clear, our Q4 is trending at least in line with prior expectations, maybe better. We continue to expect to deliver about 3 million postpaid phone net additions for the year, or more. Q3 was a fantastic growth quarter for T-Mobile and our growth momentum continues in Q4," Sievert said.

The Wall Street Journal led with Sievert's "holiday warning," and both it and Bloomberg quoted the chief exec as being "cautious" with regard to the telco's current quarter, highlighting the fact that results in the holiday season are typically "back-end loaded." Essentially, that means it has yet to attract the new customers that it expects during the October-December period.

"While I'm here to tell you, it's going great, we're confident in our guidance, investors should be cautious because there's a lot of risk in the back half," the Journal cited Sievert as saying.

It's not hard to see why the newswires took the angle they did. That seems like a pretty unequivocal statement.

Bad news – misinterpreted or otherwise – travels fast and T-Mobile's shares tanked. The operator closed at just shy of US$229 yesterday, down from almost $243 at the start of trading.

Hence the need for a quick reaction from Sievert. His 3 million postpaid phone adds target seems eminently achievable, T-Mobile having added 865,000 such customers in the third quarter, which is traditionally weaker than Q4.

Perhaps more to the point, T-Mobile raised its guidance when it published those Q3 numbers in October. It is now shooting for overall postpaid net customer additions – including phone – of 5.6 million-5.8 million in the full year, having previously been aiming for a range of 5.4 million-5.7 million.

It also slightly increased its guidance for core earnings to $31.6 billion-$31.8 billion and upped expectations for net cash and free cash flow, all with much fanfare.

It was confident enough to increase its outlook based on strong results from the first three quarters, but of course that doesn't mean the wheels won't come off in Q4. And clearly the market is a little bit spooked, despite Sievert's protestations.

While the CEO talked up potential customer and average revenue growth – T-Mobile expects full-year postpaid ARPA growth of around 3% – he did not mention the operator's financial guidance for 2024. Instead, he pointed to broader revenue, earnings and cash targets for the broader period through 2027. And talked up the opportunities T-Mobile sees in seasonal switching, which, he assured us, remains as robust as ever, and the possibilities associated with growth from the business and government sectors.

It's all the usual positive stuff. But the telco may well struggle to shake off the uncertainty generated by that conference speech ahead of its full-year numbers presentation next year.