DT/Tele2 tie up could smooth path to industry consolidation

For years the telco industry has condemned the EU’s approach to competition, though green-lighting DT’s acquisition of Tele2’s Dutch business could indicate a loosening grip on the idea of four operators.

According to the European Commission, each market should ideally have four operators to ensure the consumer has choice, though this has been challenged in recent years due to market economics. In short, the telcos do not feel they are making enough money to continue network investments and challenge the OTTs in capturing the digital economy fortunes. One way to balance the equation is consolidation, but regulators have consistently resisted. This might be changed according to reports in Reuters.

DT has been attempting to swallow up Tele2’s Dutch business to create a more competitive threat to the number one and two in the market, KPN and VodafoneZiggo. However, such an acquisition would decrease the number of national telcos from four to three, sacrilege in the eyes of the Brussels bureaucrats, though this vice-like persistence with four telcos might be loosening.

The decision is due on November 30, though rumours are circulating that a decision has been made and it will be in favour of the Germans. DT’s argument has been combined company would only have a 25% market share, still a way off KPN and VodafoneZiggo, therefore it would still have to challenge on price, and it seems the European Commission is buying the stance.

For rest of the telcos around Europe, executives are bound to be eagerly awaiting the official decision. Precedent is everything when it comes to regulations, competition and acquisitions. Merging these two players will give lawyers something to point to and ammunition to fight for market consolidation.

This has been a bugbear of the European telcos for some time; scale means investment. The larger the subscription bases of the telcos, the safer they will feel in terms of splashing the cash and upgrading networks. It might of course be nothing but a rouse to make more money and realise operational efficiencies, but when you look at the size of telcos on other continents you can see the argument; European telcos simply cannot compete with those in North America or Asia.

Of course what is worth noting is this is nothing more than a report for the moment. The official decision will emerge over the next few days, though the telco industry might finally be getting some ammunition to fight back against the OTTs.