Merged Vodafone Australia and TPG plan to raise convergence game

Competition and convergence are the key words as Vodafone Australia and TPG announce merger plans to lodge a challenge to market leaders Telstra and Optus.

Although the pair have stated there would no notable changes to either of the brands after the merger, the opportunity to cross-sell Vodafone’s mobile and TPG’s broadband offering could mount a serious challenge to the domination of Telstra and Optus who control more than 80% of the mobile market as it stands. Vodafone currently sits in third place in the market share race, accounting for just over 18%, just short of 6 million subscriptions according to the firm.

“This transaction accelerates Vodafone’s converged communications strategy and is consistent with our proactive approach to enhance the value of our portfolio of businesses,” said Nick Read, CEO-designate of Vodafone. “The combined listed company will be a more capable challenger to Telstra and Optus, and will be much better placed to invest in next generation mobile and fixed line services to benefit Australian consumers and businesses.”

TPG is currently Australia’s second largest broadband provider with 1.9 million subscribers, and has built a 27,000km-long fibre network primarily through acquisition, also offering wholesale broadband services to businesses. Alongside its solid position in the broadband space, TPG has also been registering interest for a launch into the mobile space, though what this now means for plans remains to be seen.

Over the course of the day, share price in Telstra has increased by 2.9% while Singtel, parent company of Optus, has witnessed a 2.19% boost (at the time of writing), perhaps indicating relief from investors. With TPG spending billions on a new mobile network and acquiring three of the thirty available spectrum lots in the most recent auction, the promise had been a fourth player to undercut rivals with a AUS$9.99 a month offering in Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Canberra and Brisbane. While this had the potential to heavily disrupt the Australian market, it seems investors are confident such plans will be brushed aside in favour of convergence.

This does not mean clear sailing for the pair, but fighting on value is much more favourable than an troublesome challenger kicking off a race to the bottom. Vodafone has suggested the combination of the businesses will allow create a much broader footprint for the business, while also scale when investing in future-proof mobile and fixed networks. The immediate introduction of a convergence offer will certainly give disillusioned Telstra and Optus customers to think about.

Telstra has been having a rough time of it in recent years, with a 55% drop in market value since the appointment of CEO Andy Penn in May 2015. The recent launch of the Telstra2022 plan, targeting a simplified management and operational structure, had little impact on the mood of investors, perhaps as it coincided with the third network outage in seven weeks. As a strategy, it Telstra2022 was supposed to offer a vision of a more efficient and profitable organization, saving roughly $740 million over the next four years, with the ability to invest in the 5G era. Apparently not.

Optus as a business has been plodding along relatively comfortably. The last financial statement revealed revenue growth of 6%, continuing to grow its subscription base on both mobile and broadband offerings. Progress has not been exceptional, but few would complain.

The market on the whole has been pretty steady over the course of the last two years, Telstra might be losing a bit of market share to rivals, but nothing exceptional. A Vodafone/TPG tie up would change the status quo however. A third player able to offer convergent offers to the Australian customer certainly has the potential to cause problems. With a suspect nationalised network, a public spat with Huawei, the government attacking the users right to privacy through encryption and now this merger, Australia is certainly an interesting market right now.