Tackling sub-Saharan Africa's mobile usage gap could add $170 billion to GDP

So says the GSMA in a new report which claims that 60% – or 710 million – of those living in the region have mobile coverage, but for one reason or another do not use mobile data. That's well above the global usage gap of 39%.

The industry group said that in 2023, the mobile industry contributed $140 billion to SSA's GDP, and that if these key connectivity barriers are addressed, that could rise to $170 billion by 2030.

Solid progress continues to be made on the technology side of things.

According to the GSMA, 4G accounted for 31% of connections in 2023, and is expected to overtake 3G by 2027, comprising 50% of total connections by 2030.

By then, 17% of mobile Internet connections will be over 5G, which is still pretty modest, but would nonetheless be a considerable improvement upon the 1.2% share of connections in 2023. Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa are expected to be three biggest 5G markets.

Smartphone take-up continues to increase. Last year they accounted for 51% of mobile internet connections, and they are on course to comprise 81% by the end of the decade.

The GSMA is also optimistic about the potential for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and high-altitude platform systems (HAPS) to plug any persistent coverage gaps between now and the end of the decade.

Technology alone isn't going to directly address those barriers to usage, but the GSMA report does offer some suggestions on that score.

On affordability, the report recommends lowering import duties on handsets, reducing activation fees, and – unsurprisingly – cutting taxes on the mobile sector. This, the GSMA says, will make services cheaper and accessible for all.

The report also calls for reforms to universal service funds (USFs). In a nutshell, this means improving their efficacy by – among other things – setting clear targets, smoothing the disbursement of funds, establishing oversight, and collecting detailed data on local usage gaps and the causes thereof.

As for spectrum – one of the GSMA's favourite subjects – the report calls on governments and regulators across the region to make more sub-1-GHz spectrum available to improve widespread availability, and release 3.5-GHz spectrum for 5G services. The report understandably also urges authorities to be reasonable when it comes to spectrum pricing, so operators have enough cash left in the kitty to spend on network deployment.

"Our findings this year reveal both the extraordinary potential and the challenges facing sub-Saharan Africa's mobile ecosystem," said Angela Wamola, head of sub-Saharan Africa at the GSMA. "To fully realise the benefits of connectivity, it is essential for operators, policymakers, and stakeholders to address affordability barriers, support infrastructure expansion, and foster collaborations that drive digital inclusion and economic impact."

By 2030, the GSMA predicts that the number of mobile Internet users in SSA will have reached 518 million, up from 320 million last year. Impressive as that projected growth is, in terms of penetration it is still only 37%. There is still a lot of work to do to close the gap.