Global broadband kit spending forecast to peak at $19.2 billion in 2028Global broadband kit spending forecast to peak at $19.2 billion in 2028

The broadband access equipment market will grow by 0.8% on average for the next five years, Dell'Oro predicts, putting the sector's peak at US$19.2 billion in revenue in 2028, as cablecos and fibre operators complete major DOCSIS 4.0 and rural broadband expansion projects.

Those projections were published shortly after Point Topic shared its latest figures on global broadband subscriptions, and seem to follow a similar pattern. Point Topic's data shows rapid growth to date, but despite some remaining headroom, a tailing off of that customer base expansion.

The number of fixed broadband subscriptions worldwide passed the 1.5 billion mark by the end of last year, or possibly on the first day of 2025, the analyst firm reported.

In late 2010, not quite 15 years ago, there were 500 million fixed lines around the world, rising to 1 billion by 2018. That shows how the pace of growth has accelerated; the last half billion subscriptions were added in just six years, compared with a decade for the first 500 million.

"It is unlikely that the next half a billion will be covered anywhere near as rapidly," said Point Topic CEO Oliver Johnson. "Those areas that still don't have a fixed network are usually difficult and expensive to reach. We won't see two billion fixed line subscriptions this decade," he said.

Indeed, although growth around the world remains rapid at present, some markets are already reaching saturation levels.

As of mid-2024 there were more fixed broadband connections in the US than there were households, and China passed that particular milestone some time ago, Point Topic said. Some other major economies are also getting to the same point.

Meanwhile, there are around 800 million households globally that do not yet have a fixed broadband connection. Many will not take the plunge, particularly with mobile offering an increasingly credible alternative. But there are also myriad local, national and even global organisations looking at schemes to improve connectivity, while the power of the advertising dollar will also drive investment in networks.

Hence the equipment market is still growing and will continue to do so.

PON equipment revenue will grow to $12.1 billion in 2029 from $10.5 billion last year, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA, as well as Fibre to the Room (FTTR) and 50 Gbps deployments in China, Dell'Oro's predicts.

Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment is expected to peak at $1.3 billion in 2028, as operators continue their DOCSIS 4.0 and early fibre deployments, the analyst firm added.

But broadband access is no longer just about the network equipment typically associated with it.

"Quietly, broadband access networks are evolving into large-scale edge compute platforms, with the ability to enable service convergence far more quickly and easily than ever before," said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell'Oro.

"This evolution means that the revenue mix for broadband equipment is shifting over the next five years, with spending on traditional hardware and software now being supplemented by spending on AI and machine learning tools to facilitate convergence and service reliability," he said.

The expansion of connectivity to a broader footprint may be slowing, but new features and technologies will keep the market buoyant.